Monday, September 29, 2008

Repub Split Hands Money To Dems

The Republican Congressional delegation has just voted two to one against President Bush's bailout plan, as amended and approved by the Democrats and - Republican leaders thought - by their own party. Apparently the Republican Party hadn't approved the bailout after all.

A renegade bunch of maverick Republicanss voted to kill the bill. Following the vote, the stock market dropped 777 points. This devalued publicly traded companies half again more than the bailout would have cost.

So now, 700 billion dollars is going to be spent as the Democrats want it spent. They will add amendments to bring in unhappy Democrats and they will get the bill passed.

Marcy Kaptur Says It All

Marcy Kaptur sees and says...



It could be added that we are being blackmailed by threat of credit blockage into paying this ransom.

Bullies I have known. "Your money or your lunch!"

Sunday, September 28, 2008

McCain Campaign Is Reining In The Palin

Perhaps she's just there to look pretty. Sarah Palin, the Vice-Presidential nominee of the Republican Party - the lady who must be ready on day two to be President of the United States - has been cloistered by her campaign. Not allowed to speak freely.

After last Friday's first debate, the Democratic Party's veep candidate, Joe Biden, was everywhere, commenting on the debate. Sarah was nowhere. She had been invited. She just didn't show. Supporters complained.

Her three public interviews since the conventions have been critically received. The stumbling sentences with which she described how Russia's nearness to Alaska gave her foreign policy experience haunt her supporters. Will she be ready on Day Two?

The "troopergate" investigation will be issuing a report in October on her misuse of government powers in Alaska. Palin may be imperiled. Her daughter may marry her baby's daddy in October, say the Brits.

Perhaps believing that less news is better news, the McCain campaign is holding her away from the press as best they can, shielding her from questions.


Meanwhile, some light has been shed on Senator McCain's state of mind at the first debate. He was apparently inwardly furious. It appears that at the White House gathering specially intended to add McCain's signature to the bailout plans, he was asked his opinion on some of the alternatives by Senator Obama. And he could think of nothing to say. Senior moment.

He may also have realized that the bailout is a gross attempt to pull money out of the till before a new president takes power, and that Republicans doing this assume the winner will not be him.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

McCain in Shame

He could not look into his opponent's eyes.

Most people have had the experience of not wanting to look in someone's eyes. We know what he was feeling.

As Senator Obama explained lask night how his fiscal plan would raise taxes on only the richest 5 percent of Americans, Senator McCain gripped the lectern tensely. Perhaps he saw millions of dollars in campaign funds spent on ads telling voters quite the opposite go floating down the river. Followed by his donors on horseback.

As Senator Obama maturely and with gentle humor countered Senator McCain's interruptions and his running on and on, McCain was enclosed and lowered.

As Senator Obama caught Senator McCain in mis-statements again and again, McCain's view of truth was exposed. Obama stood tall.

How must Senator McCain have felt?

Senator Obama agreed many times with Senator McCain. Having done so, when he then said "That's just not true" about a McCain mis-statement, he stood on a sound footing he had made. He agrees on the facts. He only has problems with the non-factual statements. The facts please? Can we determine the facts? Can we discuss what is real?

In defining the base on which they agreed, Senator Obama forced the focus to their differences.

Senator McCain talked to the crowd.

Couldn't look him in the eye.

Friday, September 26, 2008

Sailing Dire Straits

Cost-free solutions to the financial crisis... did they look for these first?

1) Tax the sale of stock. Britain does this. Double the tax for short sales. Use this tax revenue to pay for market problems.

2) Install the "stock thermostat" described in the post below. This simple rule turns off short selling when a stock has more than 80 percent of its shares shorted, then turns it back on again as soon as only 30 percent of the shares are shorted. All it requires is that a daily tally of short sales be sent to the SEC. It will remove fluffiness at the top and uncertainty at the bottom. Corporations should be able to ask for this protection. It does not set prices.

3) Your guess....

Thursday, September 25, 2008

A Simple Stock Regulating Device

The SEC has the ability to turn off short selling for any stock.

It just did this for financials and for GE and GM to help them weather the growing crowd of investors who have turned to making money selling short. The "sell now, buy later" crowd.

The SEC could do the same for any stock.

When more than 70 percent of a company's shares have been sold short, it can turn off short selling for a while.

Give the stock a rest. Let the cash resources of simple investors set the price, rather than the predator's hope for cataclysm.

Turn short selling on again when only 50 percent of the shares are sold short. Or 30 percent.

This does not control the price - just turns the sharks on and off.

It's a thermostat. The SEC can set "On" and "Off" levels as appropriate for each stock.

Updates can be daily. Short sellers who puncture the bottom and stay overnight would risk waking to an up market that doesn't allow them to recover their aggressive expenditure.

Most of the technology is in place. The SEC will need to get a nightly short sales report from the brokers. The rules need creating. Brokers won't like it. Manufacturers will.

Would you like your company to be traded this way?

Ask your boss if he can make it happen.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Gate Short Selling And Control The Market

The market has two faucets and a drain. Today we will talk about the faucets.

Warm water falls from one faucet, bringing encouragement to new ideas. This is the ordinary investment, held "long", where a person buys stock and holds it. As more people buy and hold a stock, enthusiasm can develop. Its cost can rise beyond its value.

Cold water falls from another faucet on overheated bubbles of enthusiasm. This investor sells the stock first, then buys it back once it falls. If it falls. He sells a lot of it to make it fall. Even now, there are ways that he can "short-sell" more stock than is in existence to make a company fall.

The SEC has suspended completely the short-selling of financial firms. They can only rise. Until the suspension expires. If it does.

If short-selling can be switched on and off, can it be gated?

Can the cold water be turned down just a little?

We're running out of hot...

Change The Rules First

Treasury Secretary Paulson wants 700 billion dollars immediately to rescue the economy. The stock market has been operating under bad rules or no rules, it turns out, and he needs the money to pump it up.

My dad always said that you needed to plug the leaks in the bucket before you tried to fill the bucket. You could just pump and pump and never have a full bucket.

We saw a lot of rusty buckets on the farm. Even the galvanized buckets eventually leak.

Some rules have been changed. Investors can no longer short-sell the stock of financial institutions - for a few weeks. Naked short-selling - where more shares can be sold short than a company has issued - has been severely hindered. But a free-wheeling derivatives market has pyramided into a bubble that threatens to avalanche.

No rules govern it.

Paulson wants taxpayer dollars to go in at one end of this mechanism so they can be dispersed into the hurricane at the other end. Where no rules govern.

If short selling is limited to 2/3 of a company's shares, then the sharks will only trim the fat off our dreams and not devour us whole.

If corporations are required to disclose their "credit default swap" obligations on their quarterly reports and connect them to their balance sheet, the market will determine the true value of their shares. Some are shells and no longer have any real value. They have traded their worth for profit.

If first of all the bucket is fixed and the leaks are plugged, then a government bailout won't trickle out through all the holes. And be needed again and again.

Where no rules govern.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Out Of The Market

Following the herd of two friends who long ago pulled their IRA funds out of the stock market, today I did the same.

When can I return?


When the government realizes that you have to put gas into the tank before you jump-start the car.

When the government realizes that all corporate wealth comes one way or another from consumer purchases.

When government starts to supports the people who write the checks that fill the corporate coffers of America.

Then I will re-invest my bitty fortune in corporate coffers.

I will not be alone.

Rescue The People First

Thanks to massive lobbying, Congress is once again trying to solve the nation's problems by pouring money in at the top.

Meanwhile, people suffer and withdraw their money from the market, wisely sensing that there is no reason for faith. The government is trying to jump-start a car that is out of gas.

People who have bought homes at inflated prices using time-bomb mortgages that explode down the road under the assumption that inflation can only continue were fools. Should they be punished for their idiocy? Or should they be helped down from their tree?

Which is better for the economy? Which would change the direction of the economy?

People who think that pouring money in at the top solves problems at the bottom are fools.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Consolidating Doubt

Since the days of the 1639 Exeter Combination, America's first democratically created social contract, Americans have combined in self-government to manage doubt.

Doubt. Uncertainty. Risk of random accident or sudden attack. We agree to cover each other's backs. We pool our risks, and with faith in a common good, we care for the least of us. We create a secure world, with poorhouses for those of us who fail.

Now, jobs have been disappearing overseas. At the ground floor level of the economy, less money is walking in the door.

Up on the second floor, mortgages are failing. People can't make their payments. They are losing their houses. Landlords don't get paid rent. They are losing their properties.

On the third floor, the banks that sold risky mortgages are going broke. A lot of risky mortgages were sold. It was profitable.

Having bought their way over decades into an unregulated economy, the financial business sector has enjoyed the risky fruits of the high branches, ignoring the ladder that held them there. As workers moved from punch-press jobs to french fry making, wages fell. The ladder lost its footing.

The mortgage failure reflects the failure of earned income to keep pace with inflation.

The government's solution is to bail out the failing corporations. Extend loans. It has not seen a need yet to extend loans to failing individuals and families. It has not seen the rightness of treating individuals at least as kindly as it does the corporations. Who rules America is apparent.

Now Newsweek notes that "We are all socialists". Ralph Nader tagged government support for the biggest businesses as "Corporate Socialism" back in 2002. We are all corporate socialists - we support socialism for the biggest corporations but are told that we humans still live under capitalism. Dog eat dog, survival of the fittest. It's Nature's Way. We are told.

It all depends on who owns the government. Right now, the corporations rather obviously own the taxes we pay. We are kept around only because they need hired help now and then.

Does the failure of AIG, America's largest insurance company have nothing to do with the losses suffered by insured victims of hurricane Ike last week, which laid waste massively? Our government has loaned money to AIG to tide them over until they can sell some assets, which presumably will enable them to pay back the loan.

Will government do this for the people? No, we are irresponsible.

Insurance companies cover each other's backs, too, and lend each other money. They pool the risk. By lending billions to AIG, our government is re-filling their pool as well. Our government is covering the aggregate cost of risk.

Ailing auto companies, ailing airlines, more ailing banks, any company that dabbled in derivatives - are now waiting in line hoping also to become wards of the government. These are tough times.

Who should receive our tax dollars? Us? The theory advanced by leaders is that by giving to big business, they are giving to us. People have been led to believe this. Leadable people.

At some point in the government's wandering voyage of discovery, the money is going to hit the ground. Government will find a way - under some new administration or other - to use our tax dollars to help individuals who are suffering. Not just corporations. They will realize that extending unemployment compensation keeps people in their houses, keeps renters in their apartments. And thereby makes big corporations stable.

We will hear of MORTGAGE RELIEF FOR INDIVIDUALS.

From there, the economy will once again head upwards, a wave that will immediately benefit the businesses that serve us and the businesses that serve them. For now, though, our tax dollars feed lipsticked hogs.

By watching each others' backs, we will make sure there is no doubt, no risk, no attack.

There is no doubt that we will survive, those of us who stick together.

Those of us who vote.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Will Sarah Give The Money Back?

Sarah Palin, Alaska's governor and the Republican candidate for Vice President, is sitting on $73 million American taxpayer dollars. Will she give it back?

$73 million American taxpayer dollars.

She claims that she herself killed the "Bridge To Nowhere" - the famous "I told Congress thanks but no thanks" claim. But she kept the money. She still has $73 million of it.

The Alaskan treasury had so much money this year that Sara sent a second bonus check to all Alaskans. Alaska obviously doesn't need our $73 million.

Will she give it back?

A further consideration. Would she even have given Alaskans that extra check if she didn't have the federal "bridge" money sitting in the bank? Reallocation of funds happens.

Did the pork pie in the treasury pay for the handout?

She has $73 million left. Will she give it back? Or is she saving it for next year's handout?

America needs these taxpayer dollars. Hurricane victims more so than Alaskans.

Will she give it back?

Saturday, September 13, 2008

The Pen And The Sword

The pen is said to be mightier than the sword. Perhaps this is because for the pen, the lighter the touch, the heavier the blow. Pens can achieve humor.

Swords can achieve fear, but how useful is that?

Obama Waits As Storm Recedes

Senator Obama cancelled his appearance on Saturday Night Live last night due to concern over Hurricane Ike, which is despoiling Texas. He has been mostly out of the news lately, as one hurricane after another - not to mention the Palin phenomenon - captures the news cycles.

He appears to be meeting with smaller groups where people have a chance to ask questions, building his campaign on the grassroots level as the Northern Lights fill the sky. After decades of campaigns that used the airwaves to capture voters, Obama appears to be using people-to-people interaction even more.

He has been chastised by his flock for not baring teeth and drawing blood. Perhaps he feels that the internal contradictions in the McCain campaign will dent it enough to make the candidates unattractive. Biblical wisdom. Pray that light illuminate the struggle between fact and fict.

Doesn't keep him from listing the contradictions.

Abused Newsmen Turn on McCain

The friendly relations with newsmen that presidential candidate McCain has enjoyed since the days when he welcomed them to bull sessions in the back of the "Straight Talk Express" are gone.

Angry at being seduced into promoting a person who increasingly appears to have lied and not wanting to be trapped in the tarpit, reporters have let the McCain campaign become worthy of questioning. Hard questions lie ahead.

The New York Times now questions his judgment in selecting Sarah Palin.

So does the Atlanta Constitution. The Wall Street Journal worries.

The assumption that one can successfully lie these days is a likely failing for a person trapped in the pre-computer age by keyboard illiteracy. McCain is not alone in his failure to realize that every word he has ever said before a camera is instantly available to the media.

Senator McCain has turned his press into surrogate opposition.

Friday, September 12, 2008

McCain Campaign Kneejerks

A hallmark of the McCain campaign is that they have telegraphed their supposed weaknesses.

Perceiving correctly that their man, married to an heiress with 7 houses, could be seen as a bon vivant if not a boy-toy, they attacked their opponent for being elite.

This naturally led to the fact of the seven houses being exposed.

In her acceptance speech for the vice presidency and probable future presidency, Sarah Palin described herself as no different from a bulldog with lipstick.

When Senator Obama later used the phrase "lipstick on a pig" to describe how the McCain campaign paints over their similarities to the Bush administration, the McCanians blew up They ignored the words that preceded "lipstick on a pig" and accused Obama of calling Palin a pig with lipstick. How dare he! Any mention of lipstick now apparently refers to their candidate...?

So, is Palin a pig with lipstick? The world is checking this out.

The very idea that Obama would call a beauty contest winner a pig seems unlikely. Indeed. She's not a pig, she's a beauty contest winner, everybody! She's lipstick, if anything. Obama would not have called a beauty contest winner a pig. The very idea is all so unlikely.

McCain's target voters will probably understand what Obama really said, now that they've heard the whole text repeated twenty times.

The McCain folks should have thought this one out a little better.

Ninnies appear to be spinning.

Friday, September 05, 2008

Kronecker's Delta Meets Three-Valued Logic

Ranking stocks tonight, I find myself realizing that that price range between the "sell" level and the "buy"level is called the "hold" area. Having "hold" in the value system keeps the mind from hair-trigger thinking. Sort of like the three-valued "accept - tolerate - reject" system. Or the three bears porridge choices.

I think this is called three-valued logic. Usually the middle ground denotes an uncertain area, rather than a mediated space.

The Kronecker Delta function - that if B is false when A is false and B is true when A is true, then the Kronecker (B, A) is true - extends in three-valued logic: If you and I are both agreed about Heaven and are both agreed about Hell, then we can disagree on what lies in between and still be as one.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Snowball's Chance

Dibs on the title!


(Disclosure: this writer has no intention of ever writing a book of this title, but only wishes to pass the meme into the meme stream. The right to use this title is hereby granted by the dibser to whomsoever may wish to use it.)

Palin Dodges Deposition

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is far too busy campaigning these days to let an Alaskan prosecutor catch up with her to take a deposition.

Dodging "troopergate" she is.

She tried as governor to get her state trooper ex-brother-in-law fired after her sister divorced him. Family ties beat public commitment.

President Bush's own strange notion of the "Unitary Presidency" - kind of like a dictator - may have suggested that she could have a "unitary governorship".

Someone should ask her if she believes that the President has the right to break the law.

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

All This Is Not About Me. It's About You.

Pass it on. It's a phrase so easy to say, and that people love to hear. And it's so true. It is all about you.

Pass it on.

Lemons into lemonade.